Krungsri Research expects floods in 2024 to be high risk, but not as severe as in 2011.

Krungsri Research indicates that September-October 2024 are at high risk of flooding in all regions due to the entry into La Nina and the influence of the monsoon. The concern is for the lower North and Central regions, transit routes and water catchment areas, but it is expected that it will not be as severe as the 2011 flood. Krungsri Research analyzed various factors, including oceanographic indices, including the ONI index, which indicates a rapid transition to La Niña after the El Niño phenomenon at the beginning of the year, and the PDO and IOD indices, which show the trend of storms in the region that have a significant impact on the amount of rainfall in Thailand, as well as the influence of annual storms, both storms that will enter Thailand directly and neighboring countries but have indirect impacts on Thailand. Therefore, it is expected that in the second half of 2024, the amount of rainfall in Thailand will tend to be higher than the average by about 15-16% and it is expected that La Niña will fully enter in October 2024. Therefore, September-October will be a period of flood risk in all regions. High-risk areas include the North, Central, Northeast, and parts of the South, especially the lower North, which is a waterway, and the Central, which is a water catchment area and is an area that is repeatedly flooded, which may damage economic activities, as well as properties such as households, factories, machinery, agricultural products, as well as infrastructure and utilities. Krungsri Research has modeled three scenarios. In the base case, it is estimated that the affected area will be 8.6 million rai, with a total damage value of 46.5 billion baht or approximately 0.27% of GDP. However, the government's readiness in managing water better and the development of the private sector's protection system, especially in industrial estates, will help reduce the impact more effectively compared to 2011. Ms. Pimnara Hirankasi, Head of Economic Research, Bank of Ayudhya PCL, said that although the risk of f looding this year has increased, Krungsri Research expects that it will not be as severe as the 2011 flood because in 2024 there will be less rainfall, more water-retaining areas, and the government's readiness in water management and the private sector's preparedness have improved. 'However, we still need to closely monitor the situation, especially during September-October, which are at the highest risk, because there are still many uncontrollable factors, especially the number of storms moving into Thailand, which will affect the amount of rain and the areas where heavy rain occurs, due to the current global warming that makes extreme weather more frequent and more severe,' said Ms. Pimnara. Source: Thai News Agency